Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 17,511
2 New Jersey 15,596
3 Massachusetts 11,286
4 Rhode Island 10,642
5 Connecticut 9,411
6 District of Columbia 8,887
7 Louisiana 6,797
8 Delaware 6,620
9 Illinois 6,128
10 Maryland 5,407
11 Michigan 4,717
12 Pennsylvania 4,689
13 Nebraska 4,305
14 South Dakota 3,975
15 Iowa 3,790
16 Indiana 3,658
17 Colorado 3,402
18 Mississippi 3,192
19 Georgia 3,039
20 Virginia 2,821
21 Kansas 2,418
22 Washington 2,351
23 New Mexico 2,319
24 New Hampshire 2,258
25 Tennessee 2,205
26 Ohio 2,060
27 Alabama 2,016
28 Minnesota 1,998
29 Nevada 1,996
30 North Dakota 1,956
31 Utah 1,949
32 Florida 1,889
33 Wisconsin 1,755
34 California 1,722
35 Missouri 1,614
36 Arizona 1,527
37 South Carolina 1,486
38 Vermont 1,485
39 Kentucky 1,451
40 North Carolina 1,409
41 Texas 1,380
42 Arkansas 1,329
43 Idaho 1,248
44 Oklahoma 1,159
45 Wyoming 1,143
46 Maine 1,068
47 Oregon 765
48 West Virginia 759
49 Puerto Rico 688
50 Alaska 516
51 Hawaii 438
52 Montana 428

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 District of Columbia 291
2 Rhode Island 234
3 South Dakota 230
4 Massachusetts 196
5 Nebraska 196
6 New Jersey 183
7 Illinois 180
8 Maryland 177
9 Delaware 173
10 Connecticut 165
11 New York 132
12 Minnesota 112
13 Pennsylvania 101
14 Virginia 98
15 Iowa 95
16 Kansas 92
17 Mississippi 91
18 Indiana 83
19 Colorado 77
20 Louisiana 67
21 New Mexico 58
22 Alabama 57
23 Wisconsin 57
24 New Hampshire 55
25 Ohio 55
26 Georgia 54
27 Utah 54
28 Arizona 53
29 North Dakota 52
30 Michigan 49
31 California 46
32 Tennessee 43
33 North Carolina 42
34 Texas 38
35 Arkansas 35
36 South Carolina 33
37 Nevada 28
38 Florida 27
39 Maine 26
40 Missouri 26
41 Washington 25
42 Kentucky 23
43 Oklahoma 21
44 Oregon 18
45 Puerto Rico 17
46 Wyoming 15
47 West Virginia 12
48 Idaho 10
49 Vermont 5
50 Alaska 2
51 Hawaii 0
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,377
2 New Jersey 1,041
3 Connecticut 832
4 Massachusetts 722
5 Louisiana 476
6 District of Columbia 457
7 Michigan 455
8 Rhode Island 398
9 Pennsylvania 298
10 Maryland 271
11 Illinois 270
12 Delaware 230
13 Indiana 223
14 Colorado 168
15 Mississippi 144
16 Georgia 130
17 Washington 123
18 Ohio 114
19 Minnesota 102
20 Nevada 99
21 Virginia 98
22 New Hampshire 97
23 New Mexico 95
24 Vermont 86
25 Iowa 83
26 Missouri 81
27 Alabama 80
28 Florida 80
29 Arizona 73
30 California 70
31 Kentucky 69
32 Oklahoma 68
33 Wisconsin 68
34 South Carolina 64
35 Kansas 59
36 North Carolina 53
37 Nebraska 50
38 Maine 47
39 North Dakota 45
40 South Dakota 38
41 Texas 38
42 Idaho 37
43 Tennessee 35
44 Puerto Rico 34
45 Arkansas 30
46 Oregon 30
47 West Virginia 30
48 Utah 20
49 Montana 14
50 Hawaii 12
51 Wyoming 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Massachusetts 20
2 District of Columbia 17
3 New Jersey 17
4 Connecticut 15
5 New York 10
6 Rhode Island 10
7 Delaware 7
8 Illinois 7
9 Maryland 7
10 Michigan 6
11 Louisiana 5
12 Pennsylvania 5
13 Indiana 4
14 Minnesota 4
15 New Hampshire 4
16 New Mexico 4
17 Arizona 3
18 Iowa 3
19 Mississippi 3
20 Missouri 2
21 Virginia 2
22 Alabama 1
23 California 1
24 Colorado 1
25 Florida 1
26 Georgia 1
27 Nebraska 1
28 Nevada 1
29 North Carolina 1
30 North Dakota 1
31 Ohio 1
32 Oklahoma 1
33 South Dakota 1
34 Texas 1
35 Washington 1
36 Wisconsin 1
37 Alaska 0
38 Arkansas 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Idaho 0
41 Kansas 0
42 Kentucky 0
43 Maine 0
44 Montana 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 South Carolina 0
48 Tennessee 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 120,259 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 71,944 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 70,259 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 58,024 4 99
Cass Indiana 40,383 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 5,261 232 92
Richland South Carolina 2,646 566 81
Pierce Washington 1,872 790 74
Orange California 1,104 1203 61
York South Carolina 847 1472 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 3,098 1 99
Early Georgia 2,552 2 99
Terrell Georgia 2,462 3 99
Essex New Jersey 1,781 4 99
Nassau New York 1,778 5 99
Richland South Carolina 130 468 85
Pierce Washington 66 771 75
Davidson Tennessee 50 925 70
Orange California 24 1256 60
York South Carolina 18 1355 56

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons